The play-ins have ended, the final seeds are set, and the playoffs are just about to begin. Who are you gonna bet on? I dunno, but don’t take my advice. I’m lousy when it comes to making predictions. Which brings me to this post, where I analyze each match and make a prediction about the outcome.

Look, I never claimed to be smart.

#1 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. #4 Montana Floss
Arizona Diamondbacks: 13-1, 18.3 runs scored per game (2nd Indoor Conference), 6.2 runs allowed per game (1st Indoor Conference), coached by Sisu
Montana Floss: 6-8, 16.3 runs scored per game (5th Backyard Conference), 15.9 runs allowed per game (t-2nd Backyard Conference), coached by JorgesBankAccount

This first match is between two teams drafted primarily for defense with a couple of big hitters to knock in the runs. The similarities end there, however. While the Diamondbacks dominated their conference, only losing a single game (and that one a close road loss), the Floss struggled through the season and barely made it in by winning play-in games. While the Diamondbacks have the record-shattering consensus MVP on their side, the Floss don’t have a single player who’s hit more than 10 home runs (and only three players that have hit any). While the Diamondbacks are led by a shocking rookie coach who’s taken the league by storm, the Floss are led by…a coach with only one season of experience who took the league by storm last season. Maybe they aren’t so different.

Arizona Diamondbacks
At the beginning of the season, there were questions about Sisu’s ability to win games with this team, with crazyei8hts worried about the weak bottom of the lineup enough to predict Arizona would have a 5-9 6th place finish and Eauxps I. Fourgott believing that Sisu would have a difficult time scoring enough runs with his defense-focused team and projecting the Diamondbacks in 7th place. With a 13-1 record where their only loss came against the then-strong Texas Rangers in Week 7, I think it’s safe to say that those predictions of doom have failed to hit the mark. There are two big reasons for this. The first one is Jay Green, who under Sisu’s guidance had a season so amazing that it’s almost impossible to believe, leading the league in batting average, home runs, runs batted in, and slugging percentage and along the way setting all-time records in three of those categories (batting average, home runs, and slugging percentage). The second reason, though, was that Sisu’s defense was absolutely devastating, allowing an average of 6.2 runs per game (by comparison, the next-strongest Indoor Conference defense was that of the Angels, who allowed 7.1 runs per game; after these two teams were the Bombers, who allowed 10.2 runs per game). All this adds up to a team that was underestimated at the start of the season but certainly isn’t now, with many believing that the Diamondbacks have the best chance of all the non-Backyard teams to advance past the first round of the playoffs.

Montana Floss
If there were questions about the Diamondbacks ability to produce runs, there were no questions about the Floss’s ability. They drafted speed and arms but almost no bats–in fact, they drafted as close to the opposite of batting ability as you can get. With easily the worst batting in the league, it was assumed that the Floss would have the weakest offense possible and would struggle constantly. As it turns out, these assumptions were wrong, because the Floss would utilize a grinding approach predicated on fouling off pitch after pitch to wear down pitchers and in turn defenses and create an actual workable offense out of the exhaustion. This approach, combined with the Floss’s fairly high speed, meant that Montana was able to parlay grounder after grounder (frequently earned after multiple fouls) into infield single after infield single, setting the table for their two players with actual batting power to knock in runs. As for their defense, after a weak start in the first half of the season it got stronger, holding more teams down and helping the Floss finish with the second-least runs allowed in the Backyard. (More time at Sandy Flats also assisted in this endeavor.) While the Floss were up and down, going 3-4 in both the first and second half of the season, they turned it on at the end, going 4-1 over their last five games, including two play-in games. With a strong defense and a workable offense, it only remains to be seen whether the Floss can turn it up a notch and compete with the best of the best (their only losses of 5 runs or more came against the Wombats).

Projection
Whatever else might be said about it, this is an interesting matchup. Both teams boast strong defenses, both teams put up similar amounts of runs (although 2 more runs per game isn’t to be discounted), and both teams were doubted before the season. But ultimately, the Arizona Diamondbacks have shown more power and consistency. Sure, the Floss went 4-1 down the stretch and got into the playoffs with 3 blowout wins. Sure, the Floss have home field advantage and love Sandy Flats. Sure, the Floss have played tougher competition overall. But look at the facts: those three blowout wins came against a team whose AI couldn’t stop messing up (Junior Brewers), a team with no infield (Red Phillies), and a team that struggled mightily against the Floss every time they met (Green Monsters). That home-field advantage isn’t as strong as you’d think, either; the Floss went 3-4 at home this season as well as 3-4 away. And that competition might have been tougher…but pound for pound, the Diamondbacks did better overall (just because they didn’t need to score as much as the Floss doesn’t change the fact that they scored more than the Floss). Plus, the Diamondbacks are riding a 7-game win streak, they didn’t require a bunch of effort to just make it into the playoffs, and they’ve had extra time to practice because of play-ins. And even besides all that, the deciding factor to me is Randy Johnson; wearing out the pitcher doesn’t work when the pitcher doesn’t wear out. Give me Arizona moving on to the second round, and I will take them to beat the spread.

#2 Texas Rangers vs. #3 Wizard Wombats

Texas Rangers: 10-4, 12.4 runs scored per game (3rd Indoor Conference), 12.9 runs allowed per game (5th Indoor Conference), coached by Jyknight
Wizard Wombats: 9-5, 23.6 runs scored per game (2nd Backyard Conference), 18.5 runs allowed per game (5th Backyard Conference), coached by Wizard

At a glance, these two teams are very similar, with both teams being middling in defense but above-average on offense. Both have also had similar seasons, starting out hot before falling off at the end of the season. Also of note is that both teams are run by multi-year coaches who were in the same conference last season (Backyard), and each had a middling Season 6 that they’ve rebounded from. Season 6 also contained the only matchup between these two coaches, with Wizard’s Super-Duper Wombats winning 17-16 over Jyknight’s Pittsburgh Pirates.

Texas Rangers
No team’s hype has fallen off faster or farther than the Texas Rangers, and it’s a shame. Just a month ago, the Rangers were undefeated, had been the first team in any conference to clinch the playoffs, and were taking a 10-0 record up against the flailing Milwaukee Braves. Since then, they’ve fallen off a cliff, losing four straight to the Milwaukee Braves, Baltimore Bombers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Pink Angles Association. In a vacuum, this might not have been too concerning; all but the Braves have winning records, and even the Braves have been a decent team when not confined to their home field of Sandy Flats (Week 11 had them visiting the Rangers). It’s the way they’ve lost that’s so concerning. In only one of these games did the Rangers break a run differential of 10 (+18 against the Bombers on the road), and their scores in their final two games were a +2 and a +1. Needless to say, this is not the note anybody wants to enter the postseason on, and there are plenty of questions around the Rangers about whether they can return to competitive form.

Wizard Wombats
Speaking of teams that have fallen off, we have the Wizard Wombats. The Wombats are a team built to blast the ball around the park, with strong hitting and reasonable running and a complete lack of focus on the defense. This turned out to not be a bad strategy, as the Wombats screamed through the first two-thirds of their schedule, putting up 20 runs or more against 8 of their first 9 opponents with the lone exception being the defense-focused Boston Cubs. But in the same way that the Rangers fell apart after Week 10, the Wombats fell apart after Week 9. Their scores fell off, as they only scored above 13 runs once–and that instance was a 16-run game at Tin Can Alley. In fairness to the Wombats, they still went 2-3 over this five-game stretch, but those two wins were against the Baltimore Orioles and Montana Floss–two teams that haven’t exactly been known for their prowess this season. As with the Rangers, perhaps the nadir was in their final game, where they only put up 12 runs at home against the weakest defense in the conference. This doesn’t mean the Wombats are doomed, but it doesn’t make them look very good, either.

Projection
Neither of these teams are out of it yet. Besides the obvious fact that anything can happen in the playoffs, there’s also the fact that these teams were very formidable foes before the final stretch of the season. The Wombats still have the offensive capability, and if they unlock it they could quickly become a fearsome team to deal with. As for the Rangers, they got most of their wins by doing just enough on each end, and while that’s hard to quantify, a 10-game win streak says that Texas can still go on a run. So what’s my verdict? Personally, I’m going to lean towards the Wombats in this one. Both teams have plenty of question marks around them, but the Wombats have faced stiffer competition than the Rangers, have put up better scores in their last few games, and perhaps most importantly their success has been directly attributable to a specific factor (offense) rather than what at this moment seems like a fair amount of luck.

#1 Junior Athletics vs. #2 Boston Cubs
Junior Athletics: 11-3, 11.1 runs scored per game (3rd Frontyard Conference), 5.0 runs allowed per game (1st Frontyard Conference), coached by MelloMathTeacher
Boston Cubs: 10-4, 13.7 runs scored per game (7th Backyard Conference), 12.8 runs allowed per game (1st Backyard Conference), coached by KiiiiiiiiiiiiiS

There’s an adage in football: offense wins fans, defense wins games. While that might not be precisely true (analysis suggests a split somewhere along the lines of 45% offense, 50% defense, and 5% special teams, assuming none of these squads are absolutely godawful), both of these teams decided to adhere to this line of thinking in constructing their teams–and it paid off very, very well. Both squads boast shutdown defenses with just enough offense to get by, and this strategy has served them well (admittedly, the Athletics have had more than “just enough” offense–but that’s due to often not having to score quite as much in the Frontyard to snag a win).

Junior Athletics
This team is one of the big surprises of the season. Head coach MelloMathTeacher came in looking to build a strong team, and in doing so sought the advice of many, many, many long-time players to get the best team possible. (I wasn’t consulted, but given my drafting abilities, that was probably the best decision he made.) This done, he set to work on running scrimmages and practicing, and early returns were…not good, to say the least. It paid off, though, as while the Athletics started slow with only one double-digit offensive performance in their first five games (14 runs against the Florida Marlins), they finished on a tear, scoring 10 runs or more in all but two games from Week 6 onwards (a pair of 9-run performances against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in Week 10 and the Humongous Hornets in Week 14). The Athletics defense stayed strong throughout the season as well, only giving up double-digits in one game. Cap that off with them rounding into form and securing first place in the Frontyard Conference at the end of the season, and you’ve got a recipe for a team with a full head of steam as it rolls into the playoffs.

Boston Cubs
But what about their competition? Cubs coach KiiiiiiiiiiiiiS is a longtime veteran, and while his greatest successes came without playstyle restrictions (he was the Season 4 champion and won a championship in the no-holds-barred Paste League), he’s shown that his abilities translate throughout all styles (albeit some better than others). While last season his team struggled to win the weak AL West in the Backyard, this season he’s done much better. Admittedly, his team shows shades of the Texas Rangers, in that they’ve frequently done just enough to win, but unlike Texas, they’ve got a good reason: a defense-focused team is likely to have more trouble scoring runs, and consequently scores will be lower for both sides (and games will be closer). Unlike the Athletics, though, the Cubs were trending slightly down at the end of the season; their scores didn’t improve much over the course of the season, with their lone score over 15 runs being a 31-run beatdown of the Red Phillies, and their opponents scored more against them as the season went on (ostensibly due to growing comfort with their teams). They still did well at the end of the season, though, going 5-2 on the back stretch and 4-1 in their final five, so they might well be able to continue to ride their defense.

Projection
Of all four opening-round matchups, this is the one where I have the hardest time picking a winner. Both of these teams seem fairly evenly matched, and the fact that they share the same strength makes it even harder to compare them. I could see either one of these teams pulling it off, but when push comes to shove, I’m going to have to go with the Cubs in this one. It’s narrow, but Boston has scored more runs, their coach has more experience and is probably better, and the Athletics have tended to struggle more when they can’t steal bases. I don’t like it, and my gut is telling me there’s no good choices in this one, but if I have to make a bet…give me the Cubs in 3 and the under.

#2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #1 Purple Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers: 10-4, 18.0 runs scored per game (1st Frontyard Conference), 11.9 runs allowed per game (8th Frontyard Conference), coached by hitace
Purple Sox: 11-3, 28.7 runs scored per game (1st Backyard Conference), 17.2 runs allowed per game (4th Backyard Conference), coached by aesnop

If I had to choose one thing that’s similar between these teams, I’d say it’s the offense. Both of these teams are built to score, and score, and score, and they’ve delievered on that promise. If I had to choose something different, though, that’s a tougher choice. The two most notable differences are defense and pitching. Defensively, the Purple Sox are much stronger, boasting arms and speed in spades, while the Dodgers…do not. Pitching-wise, the Los Angeles Dodgers actually have the deepest corps in the league, with the best average pitching rating (albeit with nobody devastating to take the mound…which might be why Dodgers manager hitace has had almost the entire team’s roster throw pitches at some point), while the Purple Sox completely and utterly neglected the concept of pitching to such an extent that their starting pitcher would come in as the third reliever or worse on most teams. What do those difference mean for this matchup? Well…

Los Angeles Dodgers
Remember how I said the Junior Athletics were surprising? Well, these guys are even more of a surprise. Drafted for bats and pitching and very little else by Jarod Johnson, they started off well, but that hot start turned out to be a mirage fueled by cheating. Consequently, when Jarod’s cheating was revealed after Week 2, a new coach had to be found. Enter hitace, who took over and instantly did amazingly with them, taking full advantage of their fantastic offense to post high scores and finishing with an average runs per game that would’ve ranked 4th in the Backyard Conference and 3rd in the Indoor Conference. Despite having pulled the second seed, they might’ve actually been the strongest team in the Frontyard, as their four losses were a forfeit against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (a penalty for Jarod’s cheating), a close game against the Minnesota Twins at Dirt Yards where the Twins posted 34 runs (the only time the Twins broke 20 all season), a loss to the Florida Marlins where a coach from the Backyard Conference (aesnop) took over and was allowed to play no-holds-barred, and an absolute stinker against the Yankees. The most important one of these is the Twins game; while like the others it’s somewhat of an aberration, it also speaks to the prime weakness of the Dodgers, which is that while they have an offense that can seemingly keep up with anyone, they also have a defense that can seemingly be shredded by just about anyone. The worst aspect of it is obviously Gretchen Hasselhoff’s incredibly weak arm at catcher, which leaves third base open for steals from the very beginning of the game, but the team as a whole is slow and tends to be fairly weak-armed. They’ve been fairly consistent throughout the season, though, and really seemed to turn it on through their final seven games (six regular season, one play-in), posting scores over 20 in five games and breaking 30 twice.

Purple Sox
That brings us to the Purple Sox. Remember that bit about how the Florida Marlins got taken over by a coach who was allowed to play without restrictions and proceeded to beat the Dodgers? That’s the person who coaches this team. Like the Dodgers, the Purple Sox have a very strong offense, as they spent the entire season beating up on other teams and actually broke the hallowed 50-run barrier twice (something only otherwise achieved in this era of play by…aesnop the previous season). Despite that strong offense, though, they also have a fairly strong defense that’s able to wing it around everywhere. The only real weakness for the team is the pitching staff, which is fairly low on stamina and definitely low on skill, but pretty much any hit that’s not a home run can turn into an out, mitigating a lot of the impact of the Purple Sox’s poor pitching. They’ve been strong on the back stretch, too, as they won their last six games and are clearly in a good place. The only worry for them is that they have to play the entirety of this series at Steele Stadium; while the Purple Sox were 7-0 on the road this season, at home they were significantly worse, going 4-3 and needing home proration to pull out two of those wins (although they may have figured their field out, as they’ve won their last three home games).

Projection
The Los Angeles Dodgers have several things going their way: they’re at their selected home field all the time, Ernie will be boosted throughout the series, they’re facing the weakest pitching corps in the league, the Purple Sox are weaker at Steele Stadium, and the Purple Sox are probably the best playoff team for them to play outside of the Junior Athletics or Texas Rangers. None of that changes the fact that aesnop has a longer history of play filled with better performances, that aesnop’s team has outperformed hitace’s this year, or that Gretchen is an awful catcher who gifts the Dodgers’ opposition a massive advantage. I’d say the Purple Sox will take this one, probably quite easily.