A’s over Red Sox. The A’s won the initial matchup between these two teams and have been a bit stronger throughout the season. The Sox’s weaker defense should prove the difference-maker in this game to decide the division.

D’Backs over Monsters. The season began with the D’Backs putting up a piddling performance while the Monsters annihilated them, but a lot has changed over the course of the season, and it might well end with the roles reversed.

Pirates over Tigers. The two underdogs of the AL Central have both shown an ability to break out and sneak in some upsets. It’s tough to know who will prevail in their final contest, but the Pirates’s Eckman bonus gives them the edge.

Indians over Rockies. The Rockies could prevail in an upset, but the Indians have just been more consistent over the course of the season, and are more likely than most teams to shut down the Rockies with their AI defense – as they did in Opening Week.

Blue Jays over Orioles. The first team to clinch the division, the Jays are now just running a victory lap. One more game at home, vs. an Orioles team that collapsed during the final series, should give them a break-even record entering the playoffs.

Wombats over Melonheads. On Opening Week, the Wombats won a high-scoring matchup. Since then, both teams have had similar struggles, but the Wombats have on the whole done better over the second half of the season and will likely get another big score off the Melonheads’ suspect defense.

Angels over Marlins. It’s a tense winner-take-all match for the NL East title here. The Marlins narrowly won the first contest between these two, but both have started scoring a lot more runs since then. Deschenes vs. Dunkel is a starting matchup for the ages, but we give the edge to the, on the whole, stronger Angels in a game played at their home park.

Cardinals over Braves. The Braves won the first contest between these two and have been the higher-scoring team, but in a field where the long ball will be largely eliminated, the Cards should have an easier time containing them.

Mariners over Bombers. The Mariners have been on fire here at the end of the season. They have only the narrowest of hopes of squeaking into the playoffs, but an upset against one of the top teams in the NL to cap things off would make a nice statement nonetheless.

Tapirs over Yankees. Good news for New York – they’re finally done playing at the hated Casa. Bad news – their final game will be at the other sandy park in the league. The Tapirs should clean house here.

Expos over Giants. Their Opening Week matchup saw the Giants’ AI beating the Expos by 8 runs, but this is a whole different Expos team here, and they should turn the tables accordingly.

Cubs over Devil Rays. Two weeks ago, the Rays would be the easy favorites, but new coaching has dramatically improved the Cubs’ output and they just might get one more win to cap off their season.

Red Sox over Monsters. The Monsters just aren’t cut out for the Division of Doom here. This should be an easy win that the Red Sox absolutely need.

Diamondbacks over A’s. The D’Backs first got an upset against the Indians, then narrowly missed one versus the Sox. Even though they’re out of contention now, they could still play spoiler here with another one against an A’s team that hasn’t scored over 14 since week 8.

Rockies over Pirates. The Rockies just suffered a nasty loss while the Pirates pulled off the upset against the Indians, but a repeat shouldn’t be expected. The Rockies were away from home while the Pirates had the Eckman boost, and neither of those will be the case this week.

Indians over Tigers. If their performances last week were applied to this week, the Tigers would win. But the Indians will be looking to rebound after a two-game skid, and their big bats and staunch defense will likely cause the Tigers some extra trouble.

Melonheads over Blue Jays. The Melonheads are newly energized after taking down the Orioles, their biggest game all season was against the Blue Jays, and this game will be played away from the Casa where the Jays have been so dominant. This has the potential to be a huge win for them.

Wombats over Orioles. The O’s can put up big scores at Sandy, but they generally seem to perform better on the road, plus they just suffered a nasty loss to the Melonheads and could be falling back to a series of weak games. The Wombats have been consistent lately and just proved that they can put up a decent score on the sand. Could go either way depending on how the O’s play, but if they play like last week, it’ll be the Wombats winning.

Marlins over Cardinals. The Marlins have powered up over the course of the season since losing to the AI Cardinals in Week 2. They’ll be fighting to stay in the division hunt while the Cards are effectively done, and playing at home should boost their chances further here.

Angels over Braves. The Braves just got smacked down by the Marlins, and now are set to receive round 2 from the top team in the division.

Tapirs over Bombers. The Tapirs just suffered their first loss since week 3, and they see a noticeable dip in performance whenever they face the NL’s top defenses – of which the Bombers are one. Could this be enough to push the Bombers in front? Maybe, but I think Baltimore will have troubles of their own contending with the Flats.

Mariners over Yankees. The Mariners have been on fire lately while the Yankees have been quite tepid, and now they face one more game at the hated Casa. This should be one that the Mariners can handily take, and then hope desperately for a Tapirs loss.

Expos over Cubs. We don’t even know who will be coaching the Cubs right now, while the Expos just put up 17 and will be facing the softest defense in the NL.

Devil Rays over Giants. This will be a game with huge playoff implications, but also one that’s hard to predict. Last time these two teams played, the Devil Rays won as both lost to the AI, and neither team has seen a lot of improvement over the season. It’s anybody’s guess, but the Devil Rays’ numbers have been better throughout the season, so we’ll back them here.

There is a large variety of metrics that can be used to evaluate how well teams have performed this season, but two of the simplest, and yet most important, are the number of runs that a player scores, and the number of runs an AI team gives up. Here, then, is an overview of that information for all of the teams in the BBL this season.

This was done at the eleven-week point, because that point offers the most balanced picture, given that each team has faced each other team in their league one time. Still, complete balance is impossible, and some teams’ totals will be slightly skewed from facing teams that started out the season performing rather differently than they did later on – teams like the Monsters, Angels, Tapirs, and Expos. And sometimes, teams’ performances have little to do with their competition, and more to do with just having a particularly good or bad week. But these numbers can still provide some good insight as to how good teams are at different aspects of the league, and why they’ve been successful – or not.

Since the Backyard and Frontyard leagues have been dramatically different in terms of average runs scored, they are being evaluated separately here. This also only evaluates based on raw run totals – the multiplier, or runs scored by AI teams, will not be considered here.

Backyard League

Runs Allowed By AI

Orioles – 8.5 runs on average (93 total over 11 games)

Indians – 9.3 average (102 total over 11 games)

Rockies – 11.5 average (126 total over 11 games)

Pirates – 11.9 average (131 total over 11 games)

Monsters – 12.7 average (140 total over 11 games)

Athletics – 13.1 average (131 total over 10 games)

Wombats – 13.6 average (150 total over 11 games)

Blue Jays – 14.0 average (154 total over 11 games)

Tigers – 14.2 average (156 total over 11 games)

Red Sox – 16.5 average (181 total over 11 games)

Diamondbacks – 17.4 average (191 total over 11 games)

Melonheads – 17.9 average (197 total over 11 games)

Runs Scored As Player

Athletics – 16.5 average (182 total over 11 games)

Red Sox – 16.5 average (182 total over 11 games)

Indians – 16.4 average (180 total over 11 games)

Monsters – 15.6 average (172 total over 11 games)

Blue Jays – 13.5 average (148 total over 11 games)

Diamondbacks – 13.0 average (143 total over 11 games)

Rockies – 12.4 average (136 total over 11 games)

Tigers – 11.8 average (118 total over 10 games)

Melonheads – 11.6 average (128 total over 11 games)

Orioles – 11.5 average (127 total over 11 games)

Pirates – 10.8 average (119 total over 11 games)

Wombats – 10.6 average (117 total over 11 games)

Analysis

It’s immediately clear from looking at these results that they do, indeed, have some relation to how good teams actually are. For example, at 9-2, the Indians are the best team in the league in terms of record, and they also happen to be the only team in the Backyard with top-five values in both runs scored and runs allowed, discounting the inconsistent Monsters. More than that, too, at #2 on runs allowed and #3 at runs scored, their values in these categories are significantly better than those of the next teams on the list – after the Indians comes a significant drop-off. Even though their defense has faltered more in recent weeks, their success clearly has not been a fluke.

Similarly, even if they haven’t reached the success of the Indians, the other teams with them in the upper echelons are all playoff contenders. Doing the best of these are the A’s, leading their division with an 8-3 record, thanks to tying for the most runs scored along with having a decent runs allowed value. The other teams up here have a significant weakness which has required luck to break more their way and left their positions less secure. The Red Sox are tied for having scored the most runs in the AL and along with the Indians are one of two teams that has never scored less than 10 runs in a game, but they’ve actually given up just one run less as AIs then they’ve scored, an easy bottom three team and far below #9 in that category. That means that they’ve had to get somewhat lucky for the majority of matchups to fall in their favor. On the flip side, the Orioles have the best AI defense in the league, as the only team to give up less than 100 runs as an AI, but are in the bottom three in terms of runs scored, which has limited their number of wins. They also have been very inconsistent in their run production – their five wins are also the five games in the season where they have scored 10 runs or more, and the rest of the time they’ve put up minimal scores that have been good for a loss every time.

The other likely playoff contenders not from the West, the Rockies, haven’t swept away the competition in either category, and indeed are in the bottom half in terms of runs scored. But sitting in third place in runs allowed, they clearly have one of the better AI defenses despite initial impressions to the contrary. They also put up a lot of runs earlier in the season to ensure victories in the majority of contests, before their AI started letting up less runs to help further and offset their dipping average score.

Meanwhile, this season the Melonheads went from a top 5 team, who won the division and made it to the ALCS, to a struggling team now guaranteed to finish the season with a losing record, and the reason is clear once one looks at the scoring data – the Melonheads have the worst AI defense in the entire league! Most of the rest of the league has been feasting on their defense, as in 9 out of 11 games, they have given up 15 runs or more. Compounding the problem is the fact that the Melonheads also have been one of the weakest teams in the league on offense – in fact, in 9 out of 11 games, they have scored 14 runs or fewer! And indeed, the four times where they either scored over 14 runs or gave up under 15 all took place in their only three wins of the season so far. Their eight losses all came from them putting up totals that were modest at best while their opponents put up high totals, and the consistency of this happening suggests that the Melonheads’ defense is seriously flawed, as opposed to them just having bad luck.

Elsewhere, the Wombats have had a decent AI defense, which has especially improved in recent weeks to help them finally win more games, but have struggled throughout the season to put up good run totals, jumping up and down across the season but ultimately scoring less runs in total than anybody else in the Backyard League. They also have had some unfortunate matchups, three of their six highest totals getting outshone to add to their struggles. Given that their coach, Wizard, made the NLCS as a rookie last season, this is clearly just a case of a team that he’s not so comfortable with.

The remaining teams have less commentary to be made on them. The Diamondbacks’ runs allowed average is skewed by the Monsters’ 50 against them at the start of the season, and they’ve otherwise been average in both categories. The Monsters have a solid defense and started the season off very strong in terms of scoring, but were brought down to earth when newbie coach BootyHunter took over for them. The Blue Jays are near the middle in both categories, but tend to score either very high or very low, leading to an inconsistent performance. The Tigers are below average in both offense and defense, and surprisingly have not been affected much by their change in coach, with average runs scored of 11.6 under GSchlim and 12.0 under newbie Ozzman. Instead, their struggles post-change have mostly come from a lot of runs given up by Ozzman to the AI. Finally, the Pirates have one of the better defenses in the league, but have still lost out as they’re a bottom team in terms of runs scored, barely more than the Wombats.

What About the Monsters?

No team in the league, except perhaps the Expos in the Frontyard, saw as dramatic of a performance transformation as the Minnesota Monsters. They started out as an unstoppable force, putting up giant scores in their first four games, before it was found out that they had been using tactics that violate the Lulu ruleset, under the mistaken belief that they were permissible. Coach Aesnop wasn’t the same afterwards, and soon dropped the team completely. But in the meantime, their inflated scores in the early weeks did work to skew the averages of the four teams that faced them to begin with.

So how would these teams’ averages look if one was to simply ignore the single result against the Monsters? They adjust to the following:

A’s – 12.3
D’Backs – 14.1
Red Sox – 15.8
Melonheads – 16.7

As the team that gave up the least runs to the original Monsters, the A’s overall position isn’t significantly affected, simply jumping ahead of the Monsters. Meanwhile, without the 50, the D’Backs jump up from being a particularly bad defense to being up with the pack, just barely above the Tigers, even if they still are one of the worse defenses in the league. This shift also makes it clear that the Red Sox and Melonheads have the two worst AI defenses in the league, far worse than any of the other ten. The Melonheads in particular are even farther behind the next-worse defense than before. So ultimately, in the overall rankings, the Diamondbacks are the only team significantly affected by the Monsters’ big score against them.

Frontyard League

Runs Allowed By AI

Cardinals – 5.5 average (60 total over 11 games)

Braves – 5.5 average (60 total over 11 games)

Bombers – 5.8 average (64 over 11 games)

Mariners – 6.3 average (57 total over 9 games)

Tapirs – 6.7 average (74 total over 11 games)

Marlins – 7.2 average (79 total over 11 games)

Angels – 8.1 average (89 total over 11 games)

Devil Rays – 8.2 average (90 total over 11 games)

Yankees – 8.3 average (91 total over 11 games)

Giants – 9.1 average (91 total over 10 games)

Expos – 9.6 average (106 total over 11 games)

Cubs – 12.3 average (135 total over 11 games)

Runs Scored As Player

Angels – 16.1 average (177 total over 11 games)

Tapirs – 13.4 average (147 total over 11 games)

Marlins – 9.9 average (109 total over 11 games)

Mariners – 7.8 average (86 total over 11 games)

Braves – 7.5 average (83 total over 11 games)

Bombers – 7.2 average (79 total over 11 games)

Yankees – 5.7 average (63 total over 11 games)

Expos – 5.5 average (55 total over 10 games)

Cardinals – 5.3 average (58 total over 11 games)

Devil Rays – 5.0 average (55 total over 11 games)

Cubs – 5.0 average (45 total over 9 games)

Giants – 3.8 average (42 total over 11 games)

Analysis

One fact that immediately jumps out is that, as could be expected from the fact that it’s for the newer members of the league, the Frontyard has been far lower-scoring than the Backyard. Only two teams have scored more on average than the worst team in the Backyard, and only three have given up more runs on average than the best of the Backyard. We already knew that the Frontyard tended to put up lower totals, so it’s no surprise that this is reflected in these results.

They also quite effectively highlight the plight of the NL West, which has struggled mightily ever since inter-divisional play began. It’s made clear why, here – not only are its four teams among the five lowest-scoring teams in the league, but their AIs are also among the five that have given up the most runs! Not only do the NL West teams generally struggle to score, but they also have to face higher totals than the other teams. In particular the Giants stand out as being by far the lowest-scoring team in the league, while the Cubs stand out as having an AI defense that’s an order of magnitude worse than any others in the Frontyard – even giving up more runs than a third of the high-scoring Backyard’s AIs. The Expos and Devil Rays are little better, but it seems likely that the Rays’ continued status at the top of the division can be attributed partially to the fact that their defense is clearly rather more effective than the other three teams’ – and in particular, in the starting four games of the season that they won, their AI only gave up 2.5 runs on average. It’s also worth noting that the Expos have improved dramatically over the course of the season – if you cut out the four starting games, where they scored no runs, and ignore their Week 10 forfeit (which is not included in the above list of averages), their average rockets up to a 9.2, the fourth-best in the league. That’s helped them turn around their fortunes some, although a mediocre AI defense has still limited their wins.

Meanwhile, at the opposite end of the spectrum, the Tapirs and Angels stand out as the two teams who’ve put up run totals to compete with the Backyard League. Both teams took several weeks to get going at the start of the season, but since then have become nigh-unstoppable forces due to the sheer number of runs they produce, despite both teams having only average AI defenses. Indeed, in the past eight weeks of play, the only time either team lost was when they played each other, so one team had to lose – they’ve been 15-1 in those past eight weeks. They’re competitive with the Backyard teams, too – the Angels’ average is good enough to be the fourth-best in the Backyard and an order of magnitude better than the teams below that mark, while the Tapirs would also clock in as a top-half team among the Backyard crews. takenotes011 and jorgesbankaccount have made the most obvious cases for promotion to the Backyard league next season.

Elsewhere, three teams clearly stand out as having the most effective AI defenses. The Bombers are tied for the best record in the league, and that’s largely due to having the third-best AI defense along with a top-half player offense – they’re also the only team in the league to never give up more than 10 runs in a single game. The Cardinals sat atop the NL East for most of the season, and that’s largely because they’re tied for having the best AI defense in the league, one good enough to usually keep their opponents down enough to make up for the fact that they’re also one of the lowest-scoring teams – but recent losses have shown that their low scores leave them vulnerable to their higher-scoring opponents. Meanwhile, the Braves are an interesting case – they’re tied for the best AI defense in the league and have a top-half offense, better than the Bombers’, yet stand at a mere 5-6 and are out of playoff contention. The explanation here comes from a factor not covered by these metrics – the player-controlled Braves have suffered from allowing a lot of runs to AI teams. In fact, the AI Braves have only given up 11 more runs to player teams than the player Braves have given up to AI teams! That’s cut into their scores a lot and explains their poor record despite looking good in these metrics.

As for the remaining teams, the Mariners are one of the better teams both in runs allowed by AI and runs scored, and in any other division would be contenders for the lead, but the fact that they scored less at the beginning of the season, heating up more in recent weeks to drive up their average, explains why they’ve faltered next to their competition in the Central. The Marlins have the only offense outside of the top two that’s close to being competitive with the Backyard League, but both of their averages are skewed by a small number of outlier games – without a single smackdown by the Tapirs, they’d have an AI defense among the best in the league, while their runs scored average is propped up largely be three straight big games they had earlier in the season, without which they’d be solidly in the middle of the pack. Still, swapped as their offense and defense are in the standings, they still do a good job of explaining why they’re still in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ struggles this season is reflected in their position in the bottom half of both lists. Their offense has been tepid all season, and while, in part due to a lot of games at the Casa, their defense held strong early in the season, it’s taken rather a beating recently to fall quite a bit in that regard as well.

That’s all for this analysis. Full-season data for these values will be provided at the end of this season, whether on BBL News Center or simply on the Discord server.

Red Sox over Diamondbacks. These teams are both up-and-down. Arizona has been largely very strong in recent weeks and just pulled off a huge upset against the Indians, but after losing two straight, the Sox will be fighting tooth and nail to stay in the playoff hunt. They ought to put up a tough mark to overcome.

Athletics over Monsters. The A’s just suffered a terrible performance to lose to the Pirates, but that’s not likely to happen a second straight week. Here they should take care of business and preserve their lead in the East.

Indians over Pirates. The Pirates just scored a big upset over the A’s, and the Indians just suffered an upset to the D’Backs. Could the trend continue? Maybe, but we’re betting on a return to normalcy.

Rockies over Tigers. Colorado just grabbed the lead in a tight wildcard race and sneaked up to a game behind the Indians. Against one of the least experienced coaches in the league, they should be able to stay on cruise control for this one.

Blue Jays over Wombats. This will be a big one, the two teams essentially battling to see who gets to remain in contention against the Orioles. But the Jays have smacked down visitors to their yard in three straight contests now, and they’re playing there once again. They have the advantage here.

Orioles over Melonheads. The best AI defense in the Backyard, whose team is on a tear right now, faces off against the worst, whose team is performing consistently but unremarkably. The Melonheads must win here to kick off a miracle comeback, but the miracle isn’t likely to manifest.

Marlins over Braves. The Marlins just barely lost in these teams’ first matchup but improved across the season since then, while the Braves really haven’t. A boost for Dubois should seal the deal and keep the French Fish in playoff contention.

Angels over Cardinals. The Angels just took the division lead alone for the first time all season, and they’ll be looking to solidify that against a team that’s been their top rival, but is on a skid right now.

Bombers over Yankees. The Bombers just tasted defeat for only the second time all season against the red-hot Angels, but will be looking to bounce right back against an ice-cold Yankees squad.

Tapirs over Mariners. The Mariners just put up their highest score yet season – but so did the Tapirs. Albuquerque has become a nigh-unstoppable force, and is likely to crush Seattle’s last playoff hopes this week.

Devil Rays over Expos. The Expos didn’t have quite the same lustre on this side of their forfeit. The Rays have only won one game since leaving the divisional matchups, but maybe coming back will be what they need to recapture their success and secure the title.

Cubs over Giants. The Giants are fresh off their first win since Week 3, but the Cubs’ new coach just scored twice as much as their previous high, and on just his first game. Things are looking shaky in New York’s quest to catch up to Tampa.

With the end of the season looming, every week is likely to have matchups that could prove critically important in deciding the playoff field, and this week was no expection. Some games that would have been important no matter what the result, combined with a major upset, have changed the scene somewhat.

Note: Originally, this article erroneously stated that the second tiebreaker, after head-to-head record, was run differential against the division. This was a mistake. The actual second tiebreaker is record against the division, followed by record in the second half of the season. Affected portions of this article have been amended, and I apologize for the error.

AL East

An unexpected loss by the Red Sox, in an upset to the Orioles, has set them back a game behind the Philadelphia Athletics, and with just four games left in the season, and against a juggernaut such as the Athletics – one that has beaten them before – the Sox’s chances don’t look so good.

At this point, the A’s look unlikely to lose any more games, other than perhaps their head-to-head matchup against the Sox themselves. But even if the Sox win that and are perfect otherwise, the A’s will likely defeat the Pirates, D’Backs, and Monsters, leaving the two teams still tied. In that situation, though, the Red Sox would come out on top, having a 6-1 record in the second half of the season compared to 5-2 for the A’s (the two would tie in terms of division record). So if the Sox can defeat the A’s in addition to being perfect for the rest of the season, they have a shot, but otherwise, they need the A’s to unexpectedly choke somewhere along the way. And facing a Blue Jays team this week that’s been red hot for the past two weeks, and with a game against the A’s themselves looming, the Red Sox’s chances for perfection are questionable as well.

Meanwhile, the Monsters and D’Backs both sit at 3 games behind, and a comeback for either would depend on a total of 7 wins for them combined with losses for the A’s, all in the next four weeks. They can safely be assumed to be out of contention at this point.

AL Central

The Central sits in much the same position as it did last week. The Tigers and Pirates are now completely out of title contention, while the Rockies sit two games behind the Indians, and so the Rockies’ playoff chances look dim. Both teams are likely to feast on the weaker competition in their division, so to catch up, the Rockies would need to defeat the Indians in their head-to-head matchup, plus beat the Melonheads while the Indians lose to the Diamondbacks. It’s potentially feasible, but the D’Backs are none too likely to topple the 9-1 Indians, while the Melonheads and Rockies have roughly even odds based on runs scored and an upset is conceivable. On the whole, it looks like the Rockies’ hole remains too deep to climb out of.

AL West

Three of last week’s four games went as expected, but one did not – the Oakland Orioles pulled out a surprise upset victory against the Boston Red Sox, allowing them to pull one game ahead of each of the other three teams in the division, resulting in a single team leading the division for the first time all season!

This is big news, and with a game against the Monsters this week which could be accurately described as one that the O’s are certain to win, they’ll be going into the final division series while maintaining that lead – and with the Melonheads and Blue Jays both facing tough teams this week, and the Wombats against a Tigers team that broke out last week, the O’s have a solid chance at being two games ahead of at least two other teams in the division.

That final divisional series will still be critical in determining the final outcome of this division race, and remains as unpredictable as the teams in it. But the Orioles have a significant advantage now, have been red-hot lately, and performed well in the initial division series. They’re in a position where winning just two of the three games will likely be enough to secure the win against everybody else, and if they continue on their current trajectory, they should achieve that no problem. But if they suddenly go cold again and lose the last three games, then it will be a giant free-for-all once again.

AL Wild Card

The Monsters and Diamondbacks remain potentially viable in this race, at two games behind each, but both face likely losses in Week 11, as well as twin threat matchups against the Red Sox and A’s after that, to leave a path to victory very unlikely. Much more likely, the winner will be one of the two teams currently tied for the lead: the Rockies and Red Sox. With the Red Sox’s upset loss to the Orioles last week, the Rockies have moved into a very slightly favorable position here – both teams are in matchups this week where they are favored, but likely have roughly equal odds of suffering an upset. After that, the Rockies face a very likely 2-1 home stretch. The Red Sox could also very well go 2-1, but the Diamondbacks are likely to be a stiffer opponent for them than either team that the Rockies will face, making them more likely to falter and lose that critical game.

On the other hand, if the teams remain tied, the Red Sox do hold the tiebreaker, giving them an edge in that regard. Overall, this race is too close to call right now, but we give the slight edge to the Rockies for now by virtue of having a slightly easier schedule in the home stretch.

NL East

Last week’s games went largely as expected, leading to a scene where the Angels and Cardinals now sit tied for the lead, with the Marlins trailing by a single game. At three games behind, the Braves would need collapses by all three of those teams to win, and thus can be realistically ruled out as a possibility.

Based on recent scores, the Angels clearly still hold the advantage going into the critical final series. Their big game against the Bombers this week will have a big effect on their outlook going to that, though – if they can win, then they’ll remain tied for the lead, and barring a dramatic collapse should easily take the two out of three games needed to secure the title. If they lose, then it looks a little more shaky, as the Cardinals have a likely win this week against the Giants, which would set the Angels another game behind. Still, they seem likely to defeat the Cardinals in their rematch, with little in their respective average scores changing since they smacked them down in their first contest, and from there they’re much more likely to defeat the Marlins and Braves with little trouble. Only a sudden weakening of the Angels team will stop them from winning now.

Meanwhile, in order to have a chance at winning, the Marlins’ stakes are clear: they need to beat the Angels. The juggernauts of the East are the biggest obstacle in their way; as long as they can keep pace with them this week, a victory in their head-to-head contest would tie them up, with the Marlins holding the tiebreaker. And if the Marlins can defeat the Angels, they can likely secure victories against the Cards and Braves as well to make the comeback win. But if they falter in those two games, or the Angels pick up a game on them this week, then their two-game deficit will almost certainly be too much to make up for.

NL Central

The Bombers won in their first of three critical games last week, against the Cardinals. That means they’re still a game ahead, but that could easily no longer be the case at the end of the week. The Tapirs have another likely win this week against a Cubs team that will be playing for the first time under a new, rookie coach, and the Bombers are facing the fearsome Angels, who have outscored them in each and every week of the season so far. But in actuality, despite the fact that this is largely a matchup between the behemoths of the Frontyard League, it probably doesn’t matter in the NL Central race.

In all likelihood, this division race will be settled by one future game and one only: the Week 13 head-to-head between the Bombers and Tapirs. If the Bombers win, then they will gain an extra game on the Tapirs, and guarantee that they hold the tiebreaker, since they also beat them at the start of the season. In this scenario, the only way the Tapirs could win the division is if they win all three other games, while the Bombers lose all three games, and that’s a very tall order indeed. If the Tapirs win, then, discounting the other three remaining games of the season, they’ll sit tied with the Bombers. In this scenario, then, the Bombers will need to keep pace perfectly with the Tapirs – and with the Tapirs favored to win all three of their other games, and the Bombers favored to lose one of them, that won’t be an easy task. There will be hope if the Bombers can beat the Angels, but if they lose a game on the Tapirs this week, and lose to them next week, then they’d need to beat both the Mariners and Yankees while the Tapirs will need to lose to both.

The other two teams can be counted out at this point. At five games behind, the struggling Yankees are officially eliminated, and at three games behind the Bombers and two behind the Tapirs, the Mariners would need a total collapse from both teams to win, and that is almost certainly not going to happen.

Essentially, then, regardless of what happens in the other three weeks of the season, Week 13 will decide which team wins the division. At this point, we favor the Tapirs to win that matchup and thus the division, given their higher average scores and the fact that they’ll hold home-field advantage at the inhospitable Sandy Flats.

NL West

The West remains an uncertain division, as especially with recent turmoil, it’s difficult to predict how well any of the teams will do on a given day. The Crazy Cubs have a new coach for the last four weeks of the season, which could give them a new spark – but as they are three games behind and have to face the Tapirs this week, it will likely be too little, too late to allow them to make the playoffs. Still, they could make the rest of the playoff race interesting. So it remains between the Devil Rays, Giants, and Expos.

At this point, the Devil Rays’ position is looking pretty comfortable. They still sit two games ahead of the closest competition, and given the Giants’ consistently low scores across the season, they’re unlikely to make up those two games. As before, the real wildcard in this race is the Expos, but their forfeit last week lessens their threat level and gives the Devil Rays some more assurance. It’s still not a guarantee at this point, but as the Devil Rays can secure the secondary tiebreaker by winning just one in-division game, and they beat the Expos in their first matchup, they only need to win two of the remaining four games to secure the division win, and that’s only if the Expos win every remaining game. Games against the Giants and Cubs offer decent chances for the Rays to get those wins, and if the Expos lose to the Marlins this week, then the Devil Rays’ playoff spot will be virtually guaranteed.

NL Wild Card

With the winners in the East and Central still uncertain, the Wild Card remains a relatively big field, but one that is shrinking. At two games behind the currently leading Tapirs, the Marlins and Mariners are likely out of luck at this point – the Tapirs are highly likely to win at least two out of the remaining four games, and hold the tiebreaker over the Marlins, while to win in this situation, the Mariners would have to defeat both the Bombers and Tapirs (along with two less-intimidating opponents). So it remains a contest between the Bombers, Cardinals, Angels, and Tapirs.

This is especially an uncomfortable situation for the Cards, whose three losses all season are to these three other teams. That means that they would lose any tiebreaker to the NL Central teams, and must win out over whichever of them is a contender, requiring them to gain two games on the Tapirs, or three on the Bombers. Even if the Cardinals won every remaining game, it’s unlikely that either of those two teams would lose enough games to make the difference, so the Cards have a better shot of simply winning their own division. If they do beat the Angels, then the latter team’s position will be unsure as well. If they can beat the Bombers this week, then they’d be just a game behind them and the Tapirs, and those two’s game against each other would cover for the Angels’ loss to the Cardinals. That would still leave them needing the loser of that matchup to lose against the Mariners or Yankees, though, which would be an uncertain proposition, and the Tapirs also hold a tiebreaker over them, so if they lost to the Bombers, they’d need to also lose two out of the remaining three games to fall behind. And if the Angels lose to the Bombers this week, they’ll almost certainly be unable to catch up in the wildcard race. On the whole, then, if they don’t win the NL East, they’re also unlikely to take the wild card.

In the end, then, it seems highly likely at this point that whichever team in the NL Central fails to win the division will instead take the Wild Card as a consolation prize.

Summary

At this point, the most likely playoff field is: the Athletics, Indians, Orioles, Rockies, Angels, Tapirs, Devil Rays, and Bombers. The Red Sox also have a strong chance of unseating the Rockies and taking their spot instead. Less likely to make it, but still potentially in the hunt if fortune swings their way, are the Melonheads, Wombats, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Marlins, and Expos. The remaining nine teams do not have a realistic path to victory at this point.

A’s over Pirates. The A’s recently suffered a surprising defeat, but that was against one of the toughest teams in the AL. Against one of the runts of the league in the Pirates? Not likely to happen.

D’Backs over Indians. A bold prediction, especially considering these teams’ performances last week. But it’s not too likely for the Indians to repeat their dominant performance of last week, or the Diamondbacks to repeat their failure, and the Paveway might just be the one field this season where the Indians could be vulnerable. D’Backs could definitely have another one of their big games and snag the upset.

Red Sox over Blue Jays. The Jays had a huge game last week at the same field where they’ll be playing again, but they’ve been inconsistent and a second straight Sox upset seems unlikely.

Orioles over Monsters. The O’s have been on a tear, and Tin Can Alley could serve their big-hitting team very well. Now that they have the division lead, they’re likely to extend it over some of their competition this week.

Rockies over Melonheads. Despite being four games apart, these two teams actually have very similar run output, the Melonheads outscoring the Rockies by 6 over the course of the season so far, and by 2 last week. But the Melonheads have also given up almost 40 more runs, and the Rockies have shown that they’re better at actually getting the job done and winning.

Wombats over Tigers. The Wombats have awoken recently and are still in the hunt for the playoffs. Ozzman had his breakout game last week but may well not repeat, and the Wombats will need this win.

Angels over Bombers. Two juggernauts of the NL square off in a huge game this week, but the Angels have scored higher than the Bombers’ season high score for eight weeks in a row now, leaving them as clear favorites.

Yankees over Braves. A tough one to call, but we’re favoring New York here as their getting away from Casa should be helpful, and the Braves have shown no long-term improvement, scoring 1 or less in 3 out of the past 5 games.

Marlins over Expos. The Battle for Montreal has been hyped since before the season started, but a forfeit from the Expos casts a cloud over their chances of victory.

Cardinals over Giants. Two teams that typically score pretty low will be facing off, but the Cards have been much more successful this season and are likely to prove victorious again.

Tapirs over Cubs. The Cubs will have a brand-new coach and we don’t know what to expect from them, but the Tapirs have been consistently dominant, so it will likely be a rough welcome.

Mariners over Devil Rays. Both teams are grasping at playoff hopes still, but the Devil Rays are on a six-game slide and have beaten 4 only once in the past six weeks, while the Mariners have scored 7 or more each of the past three weeks. The Paveway won’t even be unfamiliar for them, so they have the advantage this week.

With the regular season now more than halfway through, eyes are turning to the impending playoffs. Which teams will make it in, and which ones will fall just short? With a lot of results now available to extrapolate from, and just five games left in the season, we can get a pretty good idea.

American League AKA Backyard League

AL East

Due to the big-name coaches leading teams in it, the East was known as the “Division of Doom” before teams were even picked, and it’s lived up to that moniker. It leads the league with a combined record of 24-12, compared to 22-13, 22-14, 19-17, 11-25, and 9-27 for the other five divisions, and is the only division in the league in which every team has a winning record. The AL East teams have also cleaned house against the other divisions in the six weeks since interdivisional play started, with only six losses total in those six weeks!

The division title is a razor-thin contest between the Philadelphia A’s and the Boston Red Sox, currently tied at 7-2 after the A’s lost this past week to the Indians. The two teams even have similar schedules for the last two weeks of interdivisional play – both facing AL West teams that have recently been on the upswing in the Orioles and Wombats, followed by the two weakest teams in the AL in the Pirates and Blue Jays. Those games against the Orioles and Wombats could swing things if one of those teams goes off and pulls out the upset, but it’s also quite likely that the A’s and Sox will clean house in these two weeks and enter the final division series in the same tie for first. There’s a very good chance that the division title will come down to their head-to-head matchup in the final week of the season – and as the A’s won their Opening Week bout, that puts them in the favored position to win the division.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Monsters are also in the hunt at two games back apiece, but a comeback by either team seems unlikely – not only would it require multiple losses by the A’s and Sox, but their chances of going on a season-ending winning streak are low. The D’Backs have been cleaning house since leaving the division, but they’re about to face their greatest test yet, going up against the top two teams outside the division, the Indians and Rockies, and the fact that they went 0-3 in their division to start the season doesn’t bode well either. Meanwhile, thanks to a tumultous management situation, the Monsters have fallen hard in recent weeks, losing 4 of the past six games where the Sox lost none and the A’s and D’Backs lost just one apiece. New coach BootyHunter now leads the team, and he not only has gigantic shoes to fill but also some very tough competition, so a sequence of events that put them back on top would more or less require a miracle.

AL Central

The Central has been by far the most lopsided division this season, not just in the AL but in the entire league! One sign of this can be found in the fact that the bottom-feeding Pittsburgh Pirates are, at this point, the only team in the league that has been outright eliminated from the division title hunt, now six games back with just five left in the season. The Mighty Tigers will likely soon join them, down five games with an elimination number of 1, and the odds of them winning every single game, and the division-leading Indians losing every single game, from this point on are negligible. That leaves this division as just a two-horse race.

And that race itself doesn’t look as tense anymore after last week. When the Crazy Indians led the Colorado Rockies by just a single game, there was more of a feeling that anything could happen, but with the Rockies’ loss last week, they sink to two games back, and to top it off, other than their Week 14 match against each other, the two teams are facing the exact same slate of opponents for the rest of the season! That doesn’t offer up much hope for the Rockies to gain an opening to the division lead, even if they beat the Indians in their game, and so a division title by the Indians is likely the most guaranteed playoff spot right now.

AL West

The AL West has garnered a lot of attention this season for its noncompetitiveness – during the first five weeks of interdivisional play, AL West teams won just two out of twenty games, with one of those being a forfeit by the opposing team! Yet this has also led to the division remaining a tight competition among the four teams in it, nobody able to pull ahead yet, and three of the four teams won last week to not only more than double the division’s total number of wins against oustide teams, but also make for a more interesting playoff race.

At this point, the Oakland Orioles, Super-Duper Melonheads, and Super-Duper Wizard Wombats are tied for the division lead with a lowly 3-6 record, with the Blue Blue Jays a single game behind. Yet in next week’s matchup, the Jays are the only team with a favorable matchup, as the other three are facing off against the top three teams in the AL, which leaves it likely that all four teams will be tied once again at the end of the week. That means that Week 11, and the edge that some teams could get from their matchups there, could prove critical – and if so, then the Orioles and Wizards have the edge. They’ll be facing off against the two new coaches at the helm of the Tigers and Monsters, while the Jays and Melonheads have to grapple with playoff contenders in the Red Sox and Rockies. Victory is by no means guaranteed for the O’s and Wombats, but it is a favorable week for them.

But still, even with that scenario playing out favorably, it’s quite likely that only a single game will separate the first-place team from the last-place team in the division, going into the season-ending division series, which means that that series will almost certainly determine who wins the division. And with all four teams still very much in it, and all four having performed inconsistently and put up wildly varying scores throughout the season, it’s pretty much impossible to predict how that series will turn out. Based on both the games before that series, and how the season-beginning division series went, we can theorize that, at this point, the Orioles have the best shot at winning. But I think that at this point, a win is perfectly feasible for any team in the division.

Wild Card

Up to this point, no team has been officially eliminated from the wildcard race – but with five games left in the season, it’s pretty reasonable to assume that any team that’s four or five games back will be unable to come back and win it, given that just two cases of either that team losing or the wildcard leader winning will knock out any of those teams. Thus, we can say with confidence that the Melonheads, Blue Jays, Orioles, Wizards, Tigers, and Pirates are out of contention here. Notably, the Tigers and Pirates are the two teams in the AL that are really as good as eliminated from playoff competition at this point.

That leaves, essentially, five teams battling it out – the Red Sox and A’s, only one of whom can win the AL East, as well as the Rockies, Monsters, and D’Backs. Once again, the Rockies’ loss to the Red Sox last week was a big one and has made their playoff chances much more questionable – now a game behind the A’s/Sox, they’ll need to perform near-flawlessly and have one of those teams defeated multiple times in order to win out. The good news for them is that this is still quite feasible – they have three favorable matchups and a toss-up against the D’Backs still to go, with their one really tough match coming in their showdown with the Indians at the end of the season. And while the Sox and A’s don’t have the toughest interdivisional matchups still to go, facing their division series again could batter them again. One is guaranteed to lose when they face each other, and the D’Backs could well add a second loss onto that. Still, though, it will be an uphill struggle now for the Rockies, forced to keep pace and make up a game against two of the toughest teams in the AL.

As for the D’Backs and Monsters, they sit two games behind, and given that the wildcard leaders are also the division leaders, their situation in this race is more or less the same as in the division race. While still in the running, neither is likely to make up the two-game deficit and win out. I just don’t think BootyHunter of the Monsters can catch up quickly enough to stand up to the A’s and Sox in direct matchups, and while the D’Backs might have a chance with a more favorable schedule, the fact that they face the Indians and Rockies in their next two matchups doesn’t bode well for them. The most likely outcome for the wild card race is that whichever of the A’s and Red Sox fails to win the division will take this one – but as we’ve seen in the past, last-minute comebacks CAN happen.

Summary: The most likely winners are the Athletics, Indians, Orioles, and Red Sox. The Pirates and Tigers are as good as eliminated from playoff contention at this point, and the Diamondbacks and Monsters are also very unlikely to win. The Melonheads, Blue Jays, Wombats, and Rockies are still in the thick of it, but not favored to win.

National League AKA Frontyard League

NL East

The NL East has been a very dynamic division this season, with the various teams rising and falling in their fortunes at various times. That’s resulted in a division where, in theory, each team is still in it – although the hopes for the trailing teams catching up are definitely fading by this point.

With an isolated exception in Week 5, the St. Louis Cardinals haven’t been scoring very high all season, their peak outside of that week coming last week with a +7. But they’ve still held solid, their AI rarely giving up many runs, and that’s led to a 7-2 record that still tops the AL East. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Angels have been terrorizing the league for most of the season, not scoring lower than a 13 since Week 2! Three early close losses caused them to start the season with a mediocre 2-3 record, but they’re now on a four-game winning streak and don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. For now, the Cards have a one-game lead over the Angels, and there’s a decent chance of that staying the case – both have one pretty favorable matchup in the next two weeks, as well as one game against the strong Bombers. It’s quite feasible that the Bombers could beat the Cards and lose to the Angels to allow the latter to catch up right away, but it’s just as feasible that the Cards will remain one game ahead going into the final divisional series.

Meanwhile, the formerly up-and-down Montreal Marlins have been on the rise lately, scoring 13 or higher in their last three games, but a tough loss against the Tapirs last week set them back a game to be two games behind the Cardinals – and while they have a favorable matchup this week, the Battle of Montreal in Week 11 is a questionable game for them that doesn’t offer the best hope for a comeback. And while they started the season strong, the Atlanta Braves have proven stagnant as the season has progressed, their scores remaining at about the same level. They’re now three games behind, and with a probable loss to the Tapirs next week, their playoff hopes seem to be ended.

As usual, the season-ending division series is likely to be a key part of deciding how the division will turn out – and with the Marlins and Angels having increased their run output over the season, and the Cardinals not, it seems likely that one or both will defeat them in head-to-head matchups, and (partially on those victories) pass them up for the division lead. In particular, the Angels defeated the Cardinals in their initial matchup and are just one game back, so it seems highly likely that they’ll pass them up and win the division – and it’s hard to see the Angels losing any more games at this point, given the strength they’ve exhibited recently. Still, if the Marlins can keep pace with them over the next four weeks, then pull off the upset victory in their head-to-head match in Week 14, they would have the tiebreaker and thus win the division instead. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ hopes of hanging on and still winning the division rely on them beating the Angels in Week 12, while also winning the majority of their other remaining games. While the Braves are probably out of luck, it will be a tense last few weeks of competition for the other three teams in the division.

NL Central

Early on in the season, the Central was a pretty close division where any of the four teams could potentially see success. However, through poor fortunes for some teams and the consistent dominance of others, it’s grown more lopsided, and more than any other division has become a two-team race.

The Baltimore Bombers have been not excessively dominant, but still strong, throughout the season, their scores frequently hovering around +10 en route to an 8-1 record. The Albuquerque Tapirs started off inconsistent, but found their groove in Week 4, scoring +14 or more every week since then except for a hiccup in Week 8, which was immediately followed by a peak in a +25 versus Montreal. That’s led to them continually nipping at the Bombers’ heels, sitting at just a game behind. And looking ahead at the coming weeks, the edge actually belongs to the Tapirs despite them being behind. They have matchups coming up against the Braves and the Cubs, neither of which is likely to give them much trouble if they keep to normal scores, while the Bombers are about to go into two tough matches against the Cardinals and Angels, who themselves are battling for the division title in the NL East. While they’ve been strong, the Bombers’ best score all season is lower than the Angels’ worst score in the past seven weeks, leaving a loss there likely, and it’s possible that their output will suffer against the Cardinals’ AI as well. In either case, the Tapirs will probably at least have tied them up going into the season-ending division series. While both teams have good chances of beating their division rivals there, their Week 13 contest against each other will very likely be of crucial importance, and determine who wins the division – and based on recent scores, the edge there also goes to the Tapirs. They’re the most likely division winners at this point.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners currently sit 3.5 games behind, likely to soon be 3. They haven’t been able to reach the run output of the Tapirs and Bombers, and face questionable matchups against the Expos and Devil Rays in the next two weeks. Even if they win those, they’d need to defeat both the Bombers and the Tapirs head-to-head in order to have a chance of winning the division, and at this point, that seems quite unlikely. At the bottom of the division, the New York Yankees slumped hard after a series of home games at Casa de Pablo, which leaves them now virtually eliminated at 5 games behind. They can be written off as contenders at this point.

NL West

In the early weeks of the season, the NL West stood out mostly because of the exceptional performances of the Devil Rays’ and Giants’ AI teams. Since those AIs were definitively defeated, and have continued to routinely lose since then, there hasn’t been too much to watch in this division. In particular, they have struggled mightily since beginning interdivision play – the Giants and Cubs have been winless since then, the Devil Rays have won just one game, and the Expos just two, for an overall record of 3-17. Much like their AL counterparts, these teams have struggled a lot, which has led to an open competition for first place.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays started the season with a bang, winning their first four games to become the second-to-last team in the entire league to record a loss. However, they’ve slumped hard since then, now on a five-game losing streak. Still, thanks to the lack of success of their rivals, they sit with a comfortable two-game lead. Two games behind are the New York Giants, who went 2-1 to start the season but are now on a six-game skid as their only score higher than a +3 came against the Angels, and the Montreal Expos, who failed to score a run for the first four games of the season, but suddenly came on strong in the last three games, scoring +10 or higher in all three and winning two of them. The Crazy Cubs sit in last place not just in the division but in the entire league, having submitted late in several different weeks (their result from last week is still pending) and never getting off the ground with their offense, with their high score of +5 sitting as the lowest such high in the league (discounting BootyHunter’s two-game run with the Monsters).

At this point, it seems likely that either the Devil Rays or Expos will win the division. Without improving their run output, the Giants won’t be able to win games and make up the deficit, especially with stiff matchups against the Cardinals and Marlins in the next two weeks. The same can be said for the Cubs, who have a lighter matchup against the Yankees next week but also an extra game to make up. The Devil Rays would win based on the two-game lead that they currently have, while if the Expos maintain their newfound strength, they shouldn’t have too hard of a time winning enough games to make up the deficit on the Devil Rays. Both teams will be facing the Mariners in the next two weeks, a matchup that could swing either way. For their other matchups, the Expos will face off against the Marlins in the Battle of Montreal, a match that probably favors the Marlins but could swing either way, while the Devil Rays face a probable loss to the Angels. Both teams have a strong chance at sweeping the Giants and Cubs in the final division series, leaving what could be a critical Week 12 head-to-head matchup between the two. From recent scores, the Expos seem like they would have the edge in this rematch, thereby gaining an extra game on Tampa Bay. Still, for now, the uncertainty of the Expos’ new strength, or its efficacy in their next two games, combined with the 2-game lead that the Devil Rays enjoy, and the fact that their early success in-division gives them the tiebreaker over the Expos in almost any situation, mean that the Rays continue to be the favorites to win the division.

Wild Card

With the tight races for first place in the East and Central, whichever teams fail to win out in those will be battling just as fiercely for the Wild Card position. Any teams unable to keep up in those races also won’t be Wild Card contenders – the Cubs have already been eliminated from contention there, while the Devil Rays, Giants, Expos, Mariners, Yankees, and Braves can all likely be safely written off as well.

Currently, the Tapirs lead the Wild Card race, with the Angels 1 and Marlins 2 games behind (the Tapirs’ defeat last week of the Marlins coming in hugely important here). We’ve favored the Tapirs to win the NL Central, and if we assume that, then the Bombers currently lead the closest competitor by 2 games – or 1 game, if we also factor in our favoring of the Angels in the NL East. Put more simply, the four, one-game apart tiers consist of the Bombers; Cardinals and Tapirs; Angels; and Marlins, where two of those teams will win their divisions and thus be dropped from the equation.

Further complicating the predictions of this race, the Bombers are facing the Cardinals and Angels in the next two weeks. These games should both have massive implications for the division races as well as the Wild Card race, and there’s too many variables in them to predict the results with much confidence. Unfortunately, until we know how these turn out, we don’t really have a clear picture of what the Wild Card race will look like on the other end. Thus, at this point, further analysis of this race isn’t very feasible.

For now, based on recent scores, the most likely outcome would seem to be that the Bombers lose to the Angels but beat the Cardinals, and that the Angels and Cards both win their other games in the next two weeks. That would leave the Bombers still one game ahead of their closest WC competitors going into the final division series (the Tapirs in the same position as they’re likely to win their next two games), and given that the NL Central hasn’t been as tough of competition as the NL East, the Bombers are likely to preserve their lead and win the Wild Card, assuming that the Angels and Tapirs take the divisions.

Summary: The most likely winners are the Angels, Tapirs, Devil Rays, and Bombers. The Giants, Cubs, Mariners, Yankees, and Braves are all very unlikely to win at this point. The Expos, Cardinals, and Marlins are still in contention, but not favored to win.