With the end of the season looming, every week is likely to have matchups that could prove critically important in deciding the playoff field, and this week was no expection. Some games that would have been important no matter what the result, combined with a major upset, have changed the scene somewhat.

Note: Originally, this article erroneously stated that the second tiebreaker, after head-to-head record, was run differential against the division. This was a mistake. The actual second tiebreaker is record against the division, followed by record in the second half of the season. Affected portions of this article have been amended, and I apologize for the error.

AL East

An unexpected loss by the Red Sox, in an upset to the Orioles, has set them back a game behind the Philadelphia Athletics, and with just four games left in the season, and against a juggernaut such as the Athletics – one that has beaten them before – the Sox’s chances don’t look so good.

At this point, the A’s look unlikely to lose any more games, other than perhaps their head-to-head matchup against the Sox themselves. But even if the Sox win that and are perfect otherwise, the A’s will likely defeat the Pirates, D’Backs, and Monsters, leaving the two teams still tied. In that situation, though, the Red Sox would come out on top, having a 6-1 record in the second half of the season compared to 5-2 for the A’s (the two would tie in terms of division record). So if the Sox can defeat the A’s in addition to being perfect for the rest of the season, they have a shot, but otherwise, they need the A’s to unexpectedly choke somewhere along the way. And facing a Blue Jays team this week that’s been red hot for the past two weeks, and with a game against the A’s themselves looming, the Red Sox’s chances for perfection are questionable as well.

Meanwhile, the Monsters and D’Backs both sit at 3 games behind, and a comeback for either would depend on a total of 7 wins for them combined with losses for the A’s, all in the next four weeks. They can safely be assumed to be out of contention at this point.

AL Central

The Central sits in much the same position as it did last week. The Tigers and Pirates are now completely out of title contention, while the Rockies sit two games behind the Indians, and so the Rockies’ playoff chances look dim. Both teams are likely to feast on the weaker competition in their division, so to catch up, the Rockies would need to defeat the Indians in their head-to-head matchup, plus beat the Melonheads while the Indians lose to the Diamondbacks. It’s potentially feasible, but the D’Backs are none too likely to topple the 9-1 Indians, while the Melonheads and Rockies have roughly even odds based on runs scored and an upset is conceivable. On the whole, it looks like the Rockies’ hole remains too deep to climb out of.

AL West

Three of last week’s four games went as expected, but one did not – the Oakland Orioles pulled out a surprise upset victory against the Boston Red Sox, allowing them to pull one game ahead of each of the other three teams in the division, resulting in a single team leading the division for the first time all season!

This is big news, and with a game against the Monsters this week which could be accurately described as one that the O’s are certain to win, they’ll be going into the final division series while maintaining that lead – and with the Melonheads and Blue Jays both facing tough teams this week, and the Wombats against a Tigers team that broke out last week, the O’s have a solid chance at being two games ahead of at least two other teams in the division.

That final divisional series will still be critical in determining the final outcome of this division race, and remains as unpredictable as the teams in it. But the Orioles have a significant advantage now, have been red-hot lately, and performed well in the initial division series. They’re in a position where winning just two of the three games will likely be enough to secure the win against everybody else, and if they continue on their current trajectory, they should achieve that no problem. But if they suddenly go cold again and lose the last three games, then it will be a giant free-for-all once again.

AL Wild Card

The Monsters and Diamondbacks remain potentially viable in this race, at two games behind each, but both face likely losses in Week 11, as well as twin threat matchups against the Red Sox and A’s after that, to leave a path to victory very unlikely. Much more likely, the winner will be one of the two teams currently tied for the lead: the Rockies and Red Sox. With the Red Sox’s upset loss to the Orioles last week, the Rockies have moved into a very slightly favorable position here – both teams are in matchups this week where they are favored, but likely have roughly equal odds of suffering an upset. After that, the Rockies face a very likely 2-1 home stretch. The Red Sox could also very well go 2-1, but the Diamondbacks are likely to be a stiffer opponent for them than either team that the Rockies will face, making them more likely to falter and lose that critical game.

On the other hand, if the teams remain tied, the Red Sox do hold the tiebreaker, giving them an edge in that regard. Overall, this race is too close to call right now, but we give the slight edge to the Rockies for now by virtue of having a slightly easier schedule in the home stretch.

NL East

Last week’s games went largely as expected, leading to a scene where the Angels and Cardinals now sit tied for the lead, with the Marlins trailing by a single game. At three games behind, the Braves would need collapses by all three of those teams to win, and thus can be realistically ruled out as a possibility.

Based on recent scores, the Angels clearly still hold the advantage going into the critical final series. Their big game against the Bombers this week will have a big effect on their outlook going to that, though – if they can win, then they’ll remain tied for the lead, and barring a dramatic collapse should easily take the two out of three games needed to secure the title. If they lose, then it looks a little more shaky, as the Cardinals have a likely win this week against the Giants, which would set the Angels another game behind. Still, they seem likely to defeat the Cardinals in their rematch, with little in their respective average scores changing since they smacked them down in their first contest, and from there they’re much more likely to defeat the Marlins and Braves with little trouble. Only a sudden weakening of the Angels team will stop them from winning now.

Meanwhile, in order to have a chance at winning, the Marlins’ stakes are clear: they need to beat the Angels. The juggernauts of the East are the biggest obstacle in their way; as long as they can keep pace with them this week, a victory in their head-to-head contest would tie them up, with the Marlins holding the tiebreaker. And if the Marlins can defeat the Angels, they can likely secure victories against the Cards and Braves as well to make the comeback win. But if they falter in those two games, or the Angels pick up a game on them this week, then their two-game deficit will almost certainly be too much to make up for.

NL Central

The Bombers won in their first of three critical games last week, against the Cardinals. That means they’re still a game ahead, but that could easily no longer be the case at the end of the week. The Tapirs have another likely win this week against a Cubs team that will be playing for the first time under a new, rookie coach, and the Bombers are facing the fearsome Angels, who have outscored them in each and every week of the season so far. But in actuality, despite the fact that this is largely a matchup between the behemoths of the Frontyard League, it probably doesn’t matter in the NL Central race.

In all likelihood, this division race will be settled by one future game and one only: the Week 13 head-to-head between the Bombers and Tapirs. If the Bombers win, then they will gain an extra game on the Tapirs, and guarantee that they hold the tiebreaker, since they also beat them at the start of the season. In this scenario, the only way the Tapirs could win the division is if they win all three other games, while the Bombers lose all three games, and that’s a very tall order indeed. If the Tapirs win, then, discounting the other three remaining games of the season, they’ll sit tied with the Bombers. In this scenario, then, the Bombers will need to keep pace perfectly with the Tapirs – and with the Tapirs favored to win all three of their other games, and the Bombers favored to lose one of them, that won’t be an easy task. There will be hope if the Bombers can beat the Angels, but if they lose a game on the Tapirs this week, and lose to them next week, then they’d need to beat both the Mariners and Yankees while the Tapirs will need to lose to both.

The other two teams can be counted out at this point. At five games behind, the struggling Yankees are officially eliminated, and at three games behind the Bombers and two behind the Tapirs, the Mariners would need a total collapse from both teams to win, and that is almost certainly not going to happen.

Essentially, then, regardless of what happens in the other three weeks of the season, Week 13 will decide which team wins the division. At this point, we favor the Tapirs to win that matchup and thus the division, given their higher average scores and the fact that they’ll hold home-field advantage at the inhospitable Sandy Flats.

NL West

The West remains an uncertain division, as especially with recent turmoil, it’s difficult to predict how well any of the teams will do on a given day. The Crazy Cubs have a new coach for the last four weeks of the season, which could give them a new spark – but as they are three games behind and have to face the Tapirs this week, it will likely be too little, too late to allow them to make the playoffs. Still, they could make the rest of the playoff race interesting. So it remains between the Devil Rays, Giants, and Expos.

At this point, the Devil Rays’ position is looking pretty comfortable. They still sit two games ahead of the closest competition, and given the Giants’ consistently low scores across the season, they’re unlikely to make up those two games. As before, the real wildcard in this race is the Expos, but their forfeit last week lessens their threat level and gives the Devil Rays some more assurance. It’s still not a guarantee at this point, but as the Devil Rays can secure the secondary tiebreaker by winning just one in-division game, and they beat the Expos in their first matchup, they only need to win two of the remaining four games to secure the division win, and that’s only if the Expos win every remaining game. Games against the Giants and Cubs offer decent chances for the Rays to get those wins, and if the Expos lose to the Marlins this week, then the Devil Rays’ playoff spot will be virtually guaranteed.

NL Wild Card

With the winners in the East and Central still uncertain, the Wild Card remains a relatively big field, but one that is shrinking. At two games behind the currently leading Tapirs, the Marlins and Mariners are likely out of luck at this point – the Tapirs are highly likely to win at least two out of the remaining four games, and hold the tiebreaker over the Marlins, while to win in this situation, the Mariners would have to defeat both the Bombers and Tapirs (along with two less-intimidating opponents). So it remains a contest between the Bombers, Cardinals, Angels, and Tapirs.

This is especially an uncomfortable situation for the Cards, whose three losses all season are to these three other teams. That means that they would lose any tiebreaker to the NL Central teams, and must win out over whichever of them is a contender, requiring them to gain two games on the Tapirs, or three on the Bombers. Even if the Cardinals won every remaining game, it’s unlikely that either of those two teams would lose enough games to make the difference, so the Cards have a better shot of simply winning their own division. If they do beat the Angels, then the latter team’s position will be unsure as well. If they can beat the Bombers this week, then they’d be just a game behind them and the Tapirs, and those two’s game against each other would cover for the Angels’ loss to the Cardinals. That would still leave them needing the loser of that matchup to lose against the Mariners or Yankees, though, which would be an uncertain proposition, and the Tapirs also hold a tiebreaker over them, so if they lost to the Bombers, they’d need to also lose two out of the remaining three games to fall behind. And if the Angels lose to the Bombers this week, they’ll almost certainly be unable to catch up in the wildcard race. On the whole, then, if they don’t win the NL East, they’re also unlikely to take the wild card.

In the end, then, it seems highly likely at this point that whichever team in the NL Central fails to win the division will instead take the Wild Card as a consolation prize.

Summary

At this point, the most likely playoff field is: the Athletics, Indians, Orioles, Rockies, Angels, Tapirs, Devil Rays, and Bombers. The Red Sox also have a strong chance of unseating the Rockies and taking their spot instead. Less likely to make it, but still potentially in the hunt if fortune swings their way, are the Melonheads, Wombats, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Marlins, and Expos. The remaining nine teams do not have a realistic path to victory at this point.